Bessent Bets on 3% GDP Growth, But Kalshi Traders Aren't Buying It
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is calling for a GDP boom in 2025, but prediction market traders on Kalshi are betting against him.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is putting his credibility on the line with a bold call: 3% GDP growth for the U.S. economy in 2025. That's an ambitious target in any environment — and right now, the crowd isn't with him.
Kalshi traders, who put real money behind their forecasts, are pricing in little chance that the economy actually hits that mark. Prediction markets have a solid track record of aggregating market sentiment fast, and this one is sending a pretty clear signal: Wall Street isn't buying what Bessent is selling.
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The gap between official optimism and market-implied reality is worth watching. When a sitting Treasury Secretary makes a public growth forecast, it carries political weight — but prediction markets don't care about politics. They care about probability. Right now, that probability looks low.
For traders, this kind of divergence is a setup. If growth disappoints — and the crowd says it will — expect that to ripple through rate expectations, equity valuations, and the dollar. If Bessent somehow nails it, you'll want to have been positioned for the upside surprise nobody saw coming.
The bottom line: don't just listen to what officials say. Watch where informed traders are putting their money. Right now, they're fading the boom call. Continue reading at US Top News and Analysis.
