Fed Releases June FOMC Economic Projections for 2025
The Federal Reserve published its latest economic projections following the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, offering fresh guidance on growth, inflation, and rates.
The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee just dropped their economic projections from the June 16-17 policy meeting. If you trade anything — stocks, bonds, crypto, commodities — this is the release you circle on your calendar every quarter. These projections are the Fed's clearest signal of where rates, inflation, and growth are headed.
The Summary of Economic Projections, often called the dot plot, maps out where individual policymakers expect interest rates to land over the coming years. It's not a promise, but it's the closest thing to a roadmap the Fed gives you. Every basis point shift in that dot plot moves markets. Pay attention.
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Beyond rates, the committee also publishes forecasts for GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, PCE. These numbers tell you whether the Fed thinks the economy is running hot, cooling off, or heading for trouble. The gap between those projections and incoming data is where your trading edge lives.
Quarterly projection releases like this one set the tone for risk assets in the weeks that follow. Traders who ignore the nuance inside these documents and only watch the headline rate decision are leaving information on the table. Dig into the full projection materials to get the complete picture.
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