Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Pull Back as Cycle Bottom Nears
OG Bitcoin holders are selling less than they have in 19 months, and cycle models are pointing to September as a potential market bottom.
Long-term Bitcoin holders — the OGs who've been sitting on coins through multiple cycles — just hit a 19-month low in selling activity. That's not noise. When the hands that lived through every dip stop dumping, you pay attention.
The data lines up with something bigger: market cycle indicators are now flagging September as a potential bottom for this cycle. If that model holds, you're staring at a defined entry window. Not a guarantee, but a tradeable thesis with a timestamp on it.
Read more BoE's Mann: Fewer Rate Hike Bets Are Why She'd Hike More →
The halving model is doing the heavy lifting here. Post-halving supply shocks take time to ripple through price action, and historical patterns suggest the bottom often prints months after the halving event itself. September isn't a random guess — it's what the math spits out.
Long-term holder behavior is one of the cleanest on-chain signals available. These wallets don't trade on headlines. When they stop selling into weakness, it historically signals that the market is closer to exhaustion than continuation. Combine that with a cycle-model bottom call, and the risk-reward starts looking interesting for patient buyers.
Don't mistake a bottom call for a straight-line recovery. Bottoms are processes, not events. But if you're building a position thesis for late 2025, this data gives you a framework — not a feeling. Continue reading at Cointelegraph.
