Bitcoin's Price Floor May Be Higher Than Past Bear Markets
Galaxy Research data suggests BTC's bottom won't sink as deep this cycle, but the low isn't confirmed yet.
Galaxy Research is throwing cold water on the doom-and-gloom crowd. New data from the firm suggests Bitcoin's bear market floor could land meaningfully higher than what traders saw in previous cycles. That's a big deal if you've been waiting on a catastrophic flush to load up.
The concept here is what researchers are calling a 'calm top' — a less euphoric, less parabolic peak than prior bull runs. If the top was shallower, the bottom logically doesn't need to crater as hard to reset the market. That dynamic shifts the math on where you'd traditionally expect capitulation to land.
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But don't get complacent. Galaxy's own data makes clear the bottom-finding process is still actively playing out. You don't have the all-clear yet. Calling the floor before it's confirmed is how traders blow up accounts, and this cycle has already faked out plenty of confident hands.
The practical takeaway: your old-cycle playbooks — the ones that assume Bitcoin revisits $15K or lower — may be working off outdated assumptions. This doesn't mean the pain is over, but it does mean a mechanical re-test of prior bear market lows might not be the trade you think it is. Adjust your framework accordingly, and watch the on-chain data closely as this plays out.
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